The monkeys' cries on both banks cannot cease, yet the light boat has already passed thousands of mountains. It can be said that this is the best interpretation of the internationalization of the renminbi. When everyone is talking about the "impossible trinity," the renminbi has already surpassed the yen to become the world's fourth-largest payment currency. It can be said that the internationalization of the renminbi has been very successful. Moreover, the most important thing is that this has been achieved on the basis of our achieving monetary sovereignty independence. Will the renminbi replace the US dollar as the new global currency in the future? How long will it take for the renminbi to become a global currency?
Surpassing the yen, "Renminbi becomes the fourth"
If we are submissive in marginal interests, then we strike hard in the core interests of the United States. Once upon a time, the renminbi was still on the edge of marginal currencies, and some media and individuals even said that if China does not open up free flow or monetary sovereignty, the renminbi will never be internationalized. However, today we have set a record.
Recently, according to relevant media reports, the renminbi has officially surpassed the yen to become the world's fourth-largest payment currency. It can be said that China has impacted the stronghold of European and American capital.
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Moreover, we can see that this data is only from SWIFT, which means that we have taken the lead again in the chess game set up by our opponents, and the last time was when we defeated the West in the trade rules set by the West. So we see that the United States is constantly withdrawing from groups and setting up trade barriers.
It can be said that it is not that the rules of the game are not strong, but that Europe and America are indeed old. And the most eye-catching part of this data is not that China has surpassed Japan to become the fourth.
Because surpassing Japan is just a matter of time, just like around 2010, China surpassed Japan to become the second-largest economy. Today, China is nearly five times that of Japan, so surpassing Japan is not the goal, but just a byproduct.
And the most surprising part of this data is in international payments. In October, our share was only 3.6%, but by November it had risen to 4.6%, and it was a real increase of 1%. It can be said that this increase speed is astonishing.
Moreover, this does not include Sino-Russian trade, because Sino-Russian trade is conducted through China's settlement system, and most of these are trade data from non-sanctioned countries.
That is to say, we have achieved such a great victory in the basic plate of the European and American Western world, and this achievement is very pleasing. Moreover, we are not far from the pound. If we add the trade data in our own settlement system, perhaps we can also compete with the euro.It can be said that the internationalization of the renminbi is not as some people claim it will never succeed; it's just that the right timing has not yet arrived. Although we started off slowly, when the time comes, the achievements we make in a month or a year will be equivalent to what we achieved over several years in the past.
The path to the internationalization of the renminbi has not been easy, and it was initially not well-received. This is because everyone knows that the global dollar is the lifeblood of the United States, and this cake has already been divided. China's entry requires it to compete with the former hegemon for benefits. At the same time, can China really achieve internationalization without breaking the impossible trinity?
In fact, today, the renminbi has replaced the position of the yen, which has already told everyone that China can solve the "Triffin Dilemma" of the dollar hegemony.
Will the Chinese renminbi replace the dollar to become the world currency of the new era? I think this is not our dream. Our dream is not to become the next United States, but to build a new world.
The renminbi will not become a new dollar.
Everyone sees the benefits of the dollar as the global currency, but can the dollar really do it? Does the United States enjoy it when it is sick and the world takes medicine?
I think looking at it today, the answer should be negative. Because we can see that the United States is now plagued with problems. Even if it is sick, will the world really take medicine to save the United States?
Before 2008, perhaps it was true that when the United States was sick, the world took medicine to carry the sedan chair for the United States, and in the end, countries shared the pressure, and the United States continued to enjoy it. However, now the United States is much more seriously ill than in 2008, but what we see is that countries not only do not take medicine to prolong the life of the United States, but they are also constantly blocking the United States.
In recent years, we can see that central banks around the world have been selling U.S. debt and buying gold. Everyone seems to be indifferent to the life and death of the United States, as long as it has little impact. Moreover, the more serious the illness of the United States, the faster countries run away. Even if the United States raises interest rates with high interest rates to tempt central banks around the world, countries do not turn back.
Therefore, the dollar as the global currency is not a sure thing. Moreover, we can see from this Triffin Dilemma that there is a big hidden disadvantage, that is, the trade deficit.Trade deficit is something that the United States today can be said to vehemently oppose. In fact, starting from the Obama era, three consecutive administrations in the U.S. have aimed to reindustrialize in order to reduce the trade deficit. To such an extent, the U.S. has even pressured us to sign various agreements to narrow the trade gap. Hence, it can be said that a hidden condition of the globalization of the U.S. dollar is deindustrialization, ultimately achieving financialization.
However, is this really realistic for China, a country with a population of 1.4 billion? Moreover, we have strived for 70 years to achieve industrialization, and it was only through the arduous efforts of several generations that we finally succeeded. To realize all of this, we even sacrificed our interests, obtaining technology in exchange for market access. Today, would we really be willing to sacrifice industrialization for the internationalization of the renminbi?
I believe this is not what most people would like to see. Moreover, this is not our ideal. Furthermore, those who once advocated for the liberalization of capital flows under the guise of renminbi internationalization had ulterior motives.
Today, we are determined to follow a path with Chinese characteristics, and the internationalization of the renminbi will naturally not be the same as that of the West, because for us, the path taken by the United States is not what we desire.
What is the true purpose of our renminbi internationalization? Is it to replace the U.S. dollar and become the next U.S. dollar to continue harvesting the world? I think this will not be our goal. Our aim is to facilitate trade, reduce friction, and allow more Chinese products to enter households worldwide, reaching every corner of the globe.
Our renminbi internationalization serves our trade, not to become the next U.S. dollar, acting as a scythe for asset harvesting.
Therefore, the renminbi will never replace the U.S. dollar, nor will it become the next U.S. dollar. The renminbi will increasingly become a force in the world's currency, and this will be the direction we strive towards. That is, to build a diverse, fair, and just world.
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