EU Shipping Index Dives 20%, Spot Gold Falls Below $2630/oz Again

2024-10-02 160 Comments

Overseas Market Update

The US Dollar Index rose by 0.01% on the 8th, closing at 102.55 in the foreign exchange market.

WTI crude oil futures settled down by 4.63%, at $73.57 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures settled down by 4.6%, at $77.18 per barrel.

COMEX gold futures closed down by 0.8%, at $2,640.6 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed down by 3.29%, at $30.89 per ounce.

London base metals all closed lower, with LME copper futures down by 1.73% at $9,758 per ton, LME zinc futures down by 3.09% at $3,076.5 per ton, LME nickel futures down by 1.62% at $17,760 per ton, LME aluminum futures down by 3.31% at $2,570 per ton, LME tin futures down by 2.95% at $32,905 per ton, and LME lead futures down by 1.98% at $2,106 per ton.

Chicago Board of Trade agricultural futures main contracts closed mixed, with soybean futures down by 1.72% at 1016.25 cents per bushel, corn futures down by 1.23% at 420.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up by 0.3% at 594.25 cents per bushel.

Domestic Futures

On October 8th, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results. Crude oil and fuel oil futures main contracts hit the upper limit, with LU fuel rising by more than 8%; Europe-bound container shipping fell by nearly 20%, pure soda fell by over 9%, rapeseed meal and soybeans fell by more than 4%.

Advertisement

News Express

[Container shipping to Europe sees contracts falling by more than 20%, is the ILA port strike over and what are the "after-effects"?]According to a report by Caixin, the container shipping index (European line) futures (EC) that turned red before the National Day holiday plummeted on the first trading day after the holiday. Some institutional sources indicated that the main reason was the emotional impact of the end of the dockworkers' strike on the East Coast of the United States, in addition to the continuous decline in freight rates for Europe and America lines, and the flow of funds to other futures varieties. As of the close on the 8th, EC2504 and EC2506 fell by 20%, EC2502 and EC2508 declined by about 22%, EC2412 also fell by nearly 20%, with only EC2410 rising, with an increase of 1.44%.

[In September, Chile exported 16,601 tons of lithium salts to China, an increase of 82.4% year-on-year]

According to a report by Mysteel, in September, Chile exported a total of 18,243 tons of lithium salts. Among them, 16,601 tons of lithium salts were exported to China, an increase of 82.4% year-on-year and an increase of 36.7% month-on-month; the export average price was $7,378 per ton, a decrease of 10.4% month-on-month. Due to the suspension of maintenance and repair of some domestic lithium carbonate manufacturers, the production has been reduced, and it is expected that the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile will remain high in the near future.

[Some futures companies have increased the margin standards for stock index futures]

According to a report by Caixin, on October 8th, some futures companies issued notices to raise the margin standards for stock index futures. Hongye Futures notified that, based on the recent market conditions of IH, IM, IF, and IC futures on the China Financial Futures Exchange, the company decided to increase the company's margin for IH, IM, IF, and IC futures contracts by 3% on the basis of the exchange's margin from the settlement on October 8, 2024. If the exchange raises the margin for IH, IM, IF, and IC futures due to market conditions, the company's margin will be increased proportionally.

[Spot gold breaks below $2,630 per ounce]

On October 8th, spot gold broke below $2,630 per ounce for the first time since September 30th, with a daily decline of 0.48%.

Institutional views

Energy and chemical futures

Zhengxin Futures analyzed crude oil on October 8th, stating that the intensification of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East is the main driver of current oil prices, coupled with some OPEC countries still committing to compensate for overproduction, short-term supply tightness may provide some support for crude oil; however, the seasonal decline in oil product demand, coupled with the fact that the Fed's interest rate cut has been digested, the fundamentals of crude oil still face pressure in the long term.Guantong Futures analyzed bitumen on October 8th, stating that it is expected that bitumen will continue to fluctuate in line with crude oil. Due to the improvement in the fundamentals of bitumen, the basis has risen to a relatively high level. With the expected improvement in weather and the entry into the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," China has announced policies such as lowering reserve requirements, interest rates, and existing housing loan interest rates to stimulate the economy, and it is anticipated that the demand for bitumen will improve. At the same time, due to the low valuation of bitumen and the rebound of upstream crude oil at lower levels, there is support for bitumen from below.

Metal Futures

Baocheng Futures analyzed iron ore on October 8th, stating that the main futures price surged and then fell back, recording a daily decline of 2.37% with a decrease in volume and an increase in positions. At present, thanks to macroeconomic optimistic expectations, the futures price of iron ore has returned to a high level. Although the demand for ore is recovering, the space is limited, and the corresponding supply is weak and stable, with limited improvement in the fundamentals of ore. The upward space is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products.

Sanli Futures analyzed Shanghai copper on October 8th, stating that overall, in the short term, under the expectation of domestic economic stability and the warming of the fundamentals, copper prices may maintain a strong and volatile trend. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and global economic data on the market.

Agricultural Products Futures

Huawen Futures analyzed soybeans on October 8th, stating that due to the concentrated bearish factors such as the continuous price reduction of old soybeans by the Central Reserves and local reserves, the concentrated listing of new season soybeans, and the beginning of a downturn in the international soybean market, it is expected that the supply-side pressure in the domestic soybean market will not be easily released in the short term. Therefore, the soybean market may continue to weaken.

Leave A Comment